Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
